Coinbase Stock May Soar 90% to $350, According to Wall Street Analyst
Coinbase stock stands out as Wall Street's most exciting investment story with an impressive 85% jump in the last year. This is nowhere near the end according to Citi analysts who you retain control their Buy rating and set a $350 price target. That target suggests another 90% upside potential. The cryptocurrency exchange giant is worth $74.6 billion and has beaten revenue forecasts by 27% in its recent quarterly report. Wall Street firms are taking notice and raising their targets. JMP Securities aims high with $475 while Oppenheimer bumps their prediction to $388. These new targets show growing confidence in Coinbase's market position and future growth.
Citi Analysts Project 90% Upside for Coinbase Stock
Citi analyst Peter Christiansen heads over to Wall Street with the most optimistic outlook for Coinbase. His steadfast price target of $350 shows growing confidence in the cryptocurrency exchange's potential to tap into evolving market dynamics.
Key factors driving the bullish outlook
Christiansen's analysis emphasizes several compelling reasons for growth:
Monthly Transacting Users have jumped sharply from new and returning customers
Coinbase One subscription shows better uptake and retention
Stablecoin revenue and blockchain rewards have grown substantially
The company might join the S&P 500 index
Coinbase's Q4 performance beat revenue expectations by 27%. This is a big deal as it means that transaction revenues jumped 98% year-over-year, while subscription and services revenue grew 66%. The USDC market cap grew by 11% thanks to better product integration and international adoption.
Recent price target revisions
Wall Street firms have pushed their valuations higher. Oppenheimer bumped its target to $388 from $334, and JMP Securities raised its projection to $475 from $400. The momentum didn't stop there.
Barclays lifted its price target to $328 from $282, while H.C. Wainwright moved to $350 from $330. Piper Sandler pushed its target to $310 from $285. The average consensus price target now sits at $317.64, hinting at more room to grow.
The bullish outlook goes beyond just numbers. Christiansen believes Coinbase will boost crypto utility and offer long-term diversification options. The company's updated revenue estimates for fiscal year 2024 show a 9% jump in expected revenue and a 16% rise in adjusted EBITDA.
Q4 Results Exceed Wall Street Expectations
Coinbase delivered an exceptional financial performance in the fourth quarter of 2024. The cryptocurrency exchange's results were a big deal as it means that market expectations were surpassed. The company's earnings per share hit $4.68, which towers over the forecasted $1.81.
Revenue surges past estimates
The company's total revenue jumped to $2.27 billion, which is a big deal as it means that analyst expectations of $1.88 billion were exceeded. Transaction revenue showed remarkable growth and climbed 172% quarter-over-quarter to $1.56 billion. Several key metrics powered the company's performance:
Trading volume reached $439 billion, up 185% year-over-year
Consumer trading volume increased 224% from the previous year
Institutional trading volume grew 176% compared to the same period
Net income reached $1.30 billion, including $476 million in pre-tax gains
Monthly user growth accelerates
User engagement on the platform surged during the fourth quarter. Monthly transacting users jumped by 24% quarter-over-quarter. This expanding user base led to improved trading activities and revenue generation. Coinbase One subscription service's performance highlighted the company's success in user acquisition and retention.
Staking revenue hits new highs
The fourth quarter saw strong growth in subscription and services revenue, which reached $641 million - a 15% increase from the previous quarter. Higher crypto asset prices and increased adoption made staking a key revenue driver. The company's staking platform, along with custody services and USDC assets, fueled this growth.
Coinbase projects strong numbers in the first quarter of 2025. The company expects subscription and services revenue between $685 million and $765 million. The exchange has already generated $750 million in trading revenue through February 11.
This stellar Q4 performance highlights Coinbase's growing market dominance. The full-year 2024 results paint a picture of remarkable growth - total revenue more than doubled to $6.60 billion while adjusted EBITDA hit $3.30 billion.
Technical Analysis Reveals Strong Buy Signals
Technical indicators show strong buy signals for Coinbase stock, and 48% of analyzed indicators suggest a bullish stance. The stock maintains buy signals from both short-term and long-term moving averages that show positive momentum.
Key resistance levels ahead
Technical analysis reveals several critical resistance points for Coinbase:
First resistance: $297.84 (±$9.83)
Second resistance: $323.88 (±$10.69)
Third resistance: $342.00
The stock trades near the most important support levels, with the first major support at $257.91. The 200-day moving average offers additional support at $234.61. This price structure points to a potential 18.1% upside to the first target of $323.88.
Volume analysis supports upward trend
Rising volume patterns back the bullish outlook as price increases continue. Many more technical indicators support this upward trend:
RSI sits at 41.93, which shows room for upward movement
Moving averages meet positively, with the 50-day SMA at $285.96
The 100-day exponential moving average reads $263.04, below current price levels
The technical setup offers a favorable risk-reward ratio of 4.9:1 to reach the second target of $345.15. The stock shows strong momentum since late 2023 with a clear bullish structural break. Market analysis suggests possible consolidation between $250.00 and $350.00 that builds a solid base for the next upward move.
Technical factors line up with fundamental catalysts while increased trading volumes and institutional interest push price action higher. The stock performs strongly when testing key support levels, and below-average volumes during pullbacks suggest minimal selling pressure.
S&P 500 Inclusion Could Trigger Institutional Buying
Coinbase is on the verge of reaching its most important milestone as speculation grows about its potential index inclusion. The cryptocurrency exchange now meets the key requirements to join the S&P 500, which could mark a turning point for institutional investment in the stock.
Eligibility criteria assessment
Coinbase currently meets the fundamental criteria to join the S&P 500:
Market capitalization of approximately $80 billion, well above the $18 billion minimum requirement
Consistent profitability over the past four quarters
Strong financial performance in the most recent quarter
Adequate trading volume and market liquidity
Possible timeline for inclusion
The next S&P 500 index rebalancing offers a vital chance for Coinbase. The index committee reviews the list quarterly, and optimistic projections point to March 7 as the next evaluation date. S&P Dow Jones Indices conducts a thorough review and announces changes during quarterly rebalancing. This timing lets index fund managers adjust their portfolios accordingly.
Expected impact on stock price
Coinbase stock could see substantial institutional capital flows if it joins the S&P 500. Several factors would shape the stock's performance:
Passive funds and ETFs that track the S&P 500 would need to buy Coinbase shares, which creates strong buying pressure. This institutional demand could improve the stock's stability and trading volume.
The index inclusion would make history for the cryptocurrency sector and could attract many more institutional investors who want exposure to digital assets. The company would also strengthen its market position among leading U.S. corporations.
The S&P index committee has the final say in selection despite meeting technical criteria. Coinbase shows higher volatility than traditional financial stocks, but its $68 billion market value makes it a competitive candidate for the index.
Changes in outstanding shares, including factors like buybacks, play a role in the quarterly rebalancing process and affect company weightings. Coinbase's potential inclusion through this process could lead to wider market recognition and boost institutional participation in cryptocurrency-related equities.
Retail Investors Drive Trading Volume Growth
Coinbase saw remarkable growth as retail trading volume jumped 224% year-over-year to $94 billion. The company's original surge came from individual investors who took advantage of favorable market conditions and easier platform access.
Coinbase One subscription gains traction
The premium subscription service hit a major milestone with 600,000 members across 42 countries. Members can choose between two tiers:
Standard tier at $29.99 monthly with up to $10,000 in zero-fee trading
Premium tier at $299.99 monthly with unlimited zero-fee trading and better benefits
High-volume traders find the premium tier particularly appealing. It comes with unlimited boosted USDC rewards, 25% rebates on Coinbase Advanced spot fees, and $250,000 worth of unauthorized access protection. We focused on expanding Coinbase One, which helped boost the platform's subscription and services revenue to $2.31 billion in 2024. This marks a remarkable 167% compound annual growth rate since 2020.
New product launches boost engagement
Coinbase showed its commitment to breakthroughs with several key launches in 2024. The new 'smart wallet' feature ended up improving self-custody technology, which made the platform more secure and user-friendly. The Base Protocol, an L2 Ethereum blockchain, helped solve transaction cost issues and boosted onchain activity.
These changes brought great results. Monthly Transacting Users (MTUs) grew to 8.4 million in 2024 from 7.4 million in 2023. More users got involved thanks to Coinbase's strategy of expanding core products like derivatives and international markets.
The retail-focused breakthroughs strengthened Coinbase's market position. Revenue from subscriptions and services grew 15% quarter-over-quarter to $641 million. This growth came from multiple sources:
Stablecoin revenue: $910 million
Blockchain rewards: $706 million
Interest and financial fees: $266 million
Custody fees: $142 million
Other subscription services: $283 million
Coinbase expects subscription and services revenue between $685 million and $765 million next quarter. This forecast shows growing confidence in the platform's momentum through increasing stablecoin revenue and a growing Coinbase One subscriber base.
Conclusion
Coinbase has reached a crucial turning point with several catalysts that support Citi's ambitious $350 price target. The cryptocurrency exchange showed its market dominance through exceptional Q4 results - $2.27 billion in revenue and $4.68 earnings per share. Technical indicators match these fundamental strengths and point to major upside potential through resistance levels at $297.84, $323.88, and $342.00.
Coinbase's retail-focused strategy works well. Consumer trading volume jumped 224% year-over-year while Coinbase One attracted 600,000 subscribers. The company's subscription and services revenue continues to grow steadily, with projections between $685 million and $765 million next quarter.
A possible S&P 500 inclusion could drive substantial institutional buying. Technical analysis shows strong buy signals with an attractive 4.9:1 risk-reward ratio. Coinbase's reliable performance, growing user base, and strategic moves set it up for future growth. These factors support Wall Street's optimistic outlook and suggest significant upside potential for investors.
FAQs
Q1. What is the current analyst price target for Coinbase stock? According to Citi analyst Peter Christiansen, Coinbase stock has a price target of $350, suggesting a 90% upside potential. Other analysts have also raised their targets, with the average consensus price target standing at $317.64.
Q2. How did Coinbase perform in its recent quarterly results? Coinbase exceeded Wall Street expectations in Q4, with earnings per share of $4.68 and total revenue of $2.27 billion. Trading volume reached $439 billion, up 185% year-over-year, while net income hit $1.30 billion.
Q3. What are the key growth drivers for Coinbase? Key growth drivers include increased Monthly Transacting Users, enhanced uptake of Coinbase One subscription, substantial growth in stablecoin revenue and blockchain rewards, and potential inclusion in the S&P 500 index.
Q4. How is Coinbase's retail investor engagement? Retail investor engagement is strong, with consumer trading volume soaring 224% year-over-year to $94 billion. The Coinbase One subscription service has reached 600,000 members across 42 countries, contributing to growing subscription and services revenue.
Q5. What technical indicators support Coinbase's stock growth? Technical analysis reveals strong buy signals for Coinbase stock, with 48% of analyzed indicators suggesting a bullish stance. The stock maintains buy signals from both short-term and long-term moving averages, and faces key resistance levels at $297.84, $323.88, and $342.00.